Analyzing Deckers Outdoor Corporation: A Cyclical Investment Opportunity

PUBLISHED Apr 10, 2025, 11:02:49 PM        SHARE

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imgThe Cyclical investor's Club on YouTube

Deckers Outdoor Corp, an innovative force in the footwear and apparel industry, has recently garnered attention from Corey Kramer, host of the Cyclical Investors Club YouTube channel. In his latest analysis, Kramer explores Deckers’ cyclical patterns and shares insights into his proven investment strategy.

Recent Market Activity

  • Stock Performance: Deckers experienced a significant price decline following the implementation of U.S. tariffs. Despite this, the stock rebounded by 5% on Friday, showcasing resilience amidst market volatility.
  • Purchase Timing: Kramer strategically bought Deckers early last week, just prior to the tariff announcement, leveraging his cyclical investment approach.

Cyclical Nature of Deckers Outdoor Corp

Deckers’ business and stock prices exhibit cyclical tendencies, which can be challenging yet rewarding for informed investors. Key observations include:

  1. Earnings Volatility: Deckers has experienced periods of negative growth, such as in 2014, followed by substantial recoveries. This pattern underscores its cyclical nature.
  2. Stock Price Declines: The stock price has historically fallen as much as 75% during economic downturns, even when earnings showed moderate declines.

Understanding the Brand Portfolio

Deckers boasts a diverse range of footwear and apparel brands, including:

  • UGG: A globally recognized leader in luxury and comfort footwear.
  • Hoka: A fast-growing brand celebrated for high-performance athletic shoes.
  • Teva: Popular sandals favored for their style and functionality.
  • Sanuk: Surf-inspired casual footwear, adding an adventurous flair to the portfolio.

Over the years, Deckers has demonstrated its ability to develop successful new brands, contributing to its growth and recovery following earnings challenges.

Kramer’s Investment Strategy

Kramer employs a deep cyclical strategy that combines fundamental and historical analysis to maximize returns. His approach involves:

  1. Earnings Analysis: By evaluating historical earnings trends, Kramer identifies cyclical businesses with recovery potential.
  2. Market Treatment Insights: He analyzes stock price movements in relation to earnings volatility, providing a clearer picture of market behavior.
  3. Setting Buy Prices: Leveraging historical data, Kramer determines entry points during significant price downturns, such as a 50% decline.

Investment Considerations for Deckers

  • Historical Trends: During economic weakness, Deckers’ stock price has experienced steep declines, often unrelated to its earnings performance.
  • Volatile Market Behavior: The market’s unpredictable valuation of Deckers, such as trading at a 5 PE during the Great Recession, poses risks but also creates opportunities.
  • Growth Potential: Despite recent challenges, Deckers' earnings are expected to grow by 13% this year, outpacing many S&P 500 companies.

Joining the Cyclical Investors Club

Kramer offers resources for investors seeking to navigate cyclical market opportunities. Through platforms like Seeking Alpha and Patreon, members gain:

  • Weekly Stock Picks: Exclusive insights into top stock opportunities for $25/month.
  • Personalized Support: Direct access to Kramer for questions and guidance during market downturns.

Conclusion

Deckers Outdoor Corp exemplifies the challenges and rewards of cyclical investing. By applying a disciplined strategy rooted in historical analysis, Corey Kramer showcases how investors can capitalize on cyclical patterns for substantial returns. As market dynamics evolve, Deckers remains a compelling stock to watch for growth-oriented investors.

https://youtu.be/dqJkpIryY_M?si=XCtDDkSVTEUNf9Es



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